The improvement in consumer sentiment in October was an exception. The HDE Consumer Barometer declines again in November, with the figure even weaker than in September. Impulses for a sustained improvement in consumer sentiment are still lacking. Overall, this points to a possibly complicated Christmas season.
Consumer sentiment deteriorates in November; overall, this thus reflects a negative trend since the summer. The positive development seen in October was therefore only a brief snapshot, and the barometer currently lies even below the level recorded in September.
In November, there are only minimal changes in propensity to make purchases and propensity to save. Both sub-indicators decline slightly. Compared with the same month last year, the propensity to consume this November is somewhat lower. One reason for the declining willingness to make purchases and to save is likely the decreasing income expectations. Consumers are therefore planning on potentially lower disposable income and are making adjustments in both consumption and saving behavior. The situation in the labor market remains tense, and major financial relief for citizens from the state is currently not planned by the federal government. In this respect, the surprising optimism of the previous month is being corrected again.
Expectations that an economic recovery would set in during the second half of the year after a subdued first half have thus not been fulfilled. Consumers remain unsettled with regard to Germany’s overall economic development.
These negative assessments come at an inopportune time for the retail sector at the beginning of the Christmas season. The last two months of the year are traditionally the highest-revenue months in the industry. Under certain circumstances, consumer optimism may return in the coming year if overall economic growth is stimulated through fiscal policy measures. Private consumption could then also recover more strongly and support an economic upswing
The HDE Consumer Barometer, published on the first Monday of each month, is based on a monthly survey of 1,600 people regarding their propensity to make purchases, propensity to save, financial situation, and other consumption-related factors. The Consumer Barometer, produced by the Handelsblatt Research Institute (HRI) on behalf of HDE, serves as an indicator for private consumption. It does not reflect current consumer behavior, but rather the expected sentiment for the coming three months.
